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"Buying a good asset at a good price is the key to long-term investing success."
-Adrian Day
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Should Investors Buy on Gold's Dip?
by: Lori Spechler, CNBC (05/21/10) With gold closing successively lower and well below $1,200 an ounce on the Comex for the third straight session, investors are starting to take a hard look at this so-called "safe haven" asset....
What changed in the last month is that there was a panic rush to gold in Europe, not elsewhere. So some of the latest European buyers may be selling," says Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management.
"Gold moved too far too fast. It's above trend" and "on a short-term basis, gold could be weak. With stock markets collapsing, there will be margin calls, and gold is often the first thing to be sold when an investor has margin calls (because of liquidity)."
But longer-term, he says, "gold may pull back to trend or even lower, $1150 even $1100, but on dips, I'd be buying."___________________________________________ Gold Juniors
WH Ireland Week in Mining (04/17/10) Our good friend, Adrian Day (Global Analyst) highlights two North American stocks this week. Allied Nevada (ANV:AMEX $16.25; Hi-Lo $17.16-$5.29) looking for 100,000 oz this year with plans to become a major producer or takeover target. Also Sunridge Gold (SGC:TSXV C$0.45; Hi-Lo C$0.85-C$0.16) which is active in Eritrea, where Nyota Minerals is well advanced. Sunridge is well placed with $6M cash, is studying four deposits with a mix of copper, gold, zinc and silver. Adrian Day has been around a long time and has a good following.___________________________________________ Gold May Rise as Investors Seek Haven From Risk of Debt Default
Bloomberg (04/22/10) Gold may advance as investors seek a haven in precious metals from the possibility of debt defaults, a survey showed.
"The conditions that caused investors to buy and hold gold last year have not fundamentally changed, and the added risk of sovereign default only adds to the reasons to hold," said Adrian Day, chief executive officer of Annapolis, Maryland-based Adrian Day Asset Management with $132 million in assets.__________________________________________ Much Further to go for Gold but Watch for Correction, says Adrian Day
Business International Middle East (02/10/10) Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, says that despite hitting yet new highs near the end of the year, there is much further to go for gold and gold stocks.
In this excerpt from a recent article, Adrian reviews the resource markets and looks ahead, particularly to gold, recommending several companies for which he is anticipating good things.
...Gold certainly was helped by the weak dollar - and the year-end sell-off was provoked by a dollar recovery - but it is much more than an anti-dollar play.
Gold is up in terms of all currencies, boosted by concern about inflation and extraordinarily low interest rates. Mostly, it's a vote of no confidence in the world's paper monies, and skepticism of central bankers' abilities to effect stable money, and specifically to exit stimulus programs in an orderly manner. Nothing has changed, and gold is becoming a new de-facto alternate currency. There is a lot further to go.
Most significant perhaps, central banks have switched from being net sellers to buyers. As we have discussed before, banks that built up their reserves in the last couple of decades tend to have the highest levels of reserves but the lowest proportion of gold (India, China, Korea, etc.) The overall level of gold in central bank reserves has dropped from over 30% a decade ago to just over 10%, the lowest level ever. The ease with which India (and Mauritius) scooped up half the IMF's gold for sale shows clearly that demand overhang is not a problem. Central banks are likely to be net buyers for years to come.
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Information Received Before the Last Trading Week of the Gold
Nhabuon.com (01/18/10) ...In 2009, the dollar has only lost 4% of the gold price has risen to 24%. Thanks to the weakening of the U.S., gold was supported by resources to buy investment funds, the central bank buying of gold has risen so strongly that way. Adrian Day, director of administration Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland said, "Investors are still very worried about the paper money and banks TW wealth to hold a property really worth in their reserves."
In the Vietnamese market, after the sun continuously around the threshold drop 27 percent in during the week, gold prices in the country this weekend lost more than 100,000 VND per volume compared to last week. Trading was slow with the physical gold market, gold no longer be anchored in the high compared to world prices as before.
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Gold May Gain as Investors Seek an Alternative to a Weaker Dollar
Bloomberg (01/15/10) Gold may gain as investors seek an alternative to a weaker dollar, a survey showed.
Twelve of 19 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 63%, said bullion would rise next week. Five forecast lower prices and two were neutral...
"The fundamental question is has anything changed?" said Adrian Day, chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland. "Investors continue to be nervous about paper money, and newly enriched central banks want an asset of real value in their reserves."____________________________________________ Gold May Rise on Central-Bank Buying Speculation, Survey Shows
by Nicholas Larkin, Bloomberg (11/06/09) Gold may advance to a record on speculation that central banks and investors will purchase the metal to hedge against a declining dollar, a survey showed.
Seventeen of 23 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 74 percent, said bullion would rise next week. Four forecast lower prices and two were neutral...
"Investors waiting for that pullback realize that this train -- Asian banks buying gold -- has arrived at the station and they better get on board now," said Adrian Day, chief executive officer of Adrian Day's Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland.___________________________________________ Gold May Decline as Gains in Other Assets Curb Investor Demand
by Claudia Carpenter, Bloomberg (06-12-09) Gold may decline as gains in stocks and the dollar erode demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment.
Twelve of 29 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 41 percent, said gold would drop next week,...
"I would wait to buy, but wouldn't dream of selling," Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day's Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, wrote in an e-mail. "The summer is often a soft period. At the same time, further strength in financial markets may remove some of the bloom from the rose." Adrian Day's Asset Management has $105 million under management.
___________________________________________ Gold Rise on Haven Demand
by Pham-Duy Nguyen, Bloomberg (03-06-09) Gold futures rose for the second straight day on demand for the precious metal as an alternative to stocks and government bonds. Silver also gained...
"Gold is being driven by concern about the financial system and lack of confidence in paper currencies," said Adrian Day, the president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland. "All the pressure is on the upside."___________________________________________ The Market's Finest by Michael Santoli, Barrons (09-08-08) Barron's latest ranking of the companies most esteemed by investors highlights some familiar favorites...HSBC Holdings (HBC), at No. 48, also retained its share of fans, one of whom praised the London banking giant for being "open with the market and forthright about problems."___________________________________________ Gold, Silver Rise in New York on Outlook for Weaker Dollar
by Pham-Duy Nguyen, Bloomberg (07-25-08)
Gold and silver rose on speculation the dollar will weaken against the euro, boosting the appeal of the precious metals as alternative investments.
The dollar fell as much as 0.5 percent against the 15- nation currency before paring losses. The dollar had rallied 1.5 percent in the previous three sessions. Gold, priced in dollars, generally moves in the opposite direction of the greenback. The metal reached a record $1,033.90 an ounce in March as the dollar headed to an all-time low of $1.6038 per euro on July 15.
``The dollar rally already seems to be running out of steam -- again,'' said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day's Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland. ``That should keep support under gold.''
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Gold Falls to Biggest Weekly Drop Since 1990 as Dollar Rebounds
by Pham-Duy Nguyen, Bloomberg (03-20-08)
Gold futures fell, capping the biggest weekly loss since 1990, as the dollar rallied and traders pared bets on future cuts in U.S. interest rates by the Federal Reserve...
Gold climbed 31 percent in 2007, the seventh straight annual gain and the most since 1979, when the price more than doubled. Gold broke the record of $873 set in 1980 on Jan. 8. This is the fourth weekly decline the metal has had this year.
"This is the correction we've long been expecting,'' said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day's Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland. ``It was triggered by buyer exhaustion. I would not sell and look to be a buyer again.''
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Gold Futures Trade Above $1,000 for Second Day; Silver Gains
by Pham-Duy Nguyen, Bloomberg (03-14-08)
Gold rose, trading above $1,000 an ounce for a second day in New York, on speculation that the dollar will resume its slide against the world's major currencies...
"Gold at $1,000 is a clear sign of a lack of confidence in the dollar and the Fed's handling of monetary affairs,'' said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland.
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El oro alcanza la cota histórica de 1.000 dólares por onza ante el desplome del dólar
Sergio Jimenez Rivas, Europa Press (03-13-08)
El precio de los futuros del oro para entrega en abril ha alcanzado en Nueva York la cota psicológica de 1.000 dólares por onza ante el desplome del dólar y la incertidumbre sobre la economía estadounidense.
En concreto, según los datos de la sección Comex del New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) consultados por Europa Press, la onza de oro para entrega en abril llegó a alcanzar los 1.000 dólares momentáneamente para, posteriormente, retroceder hasta los 998,90 dólares por onza.
"En el corto plazo, no creo que el oro del oro vaya mucho más allá de los 1.000 dólares, quizás hasta los 1.020 dólares por onza más o menos, desde donde podría estar listo para una corrección", comenta Adrian Day, consejero delegado de Global Strategic Management, quien considera que si el BCE "capitula" y decide recortar los tipos, eso provocará una pronunciada caída del euro, lo que podría acarrear una corrección del oro.
No obstante, el analista señala que para el resto de 2008 sus estimaciones son muy alcistas y prevé que la onza de oro podría llegar a alcanzar los 1.200 dólares e incluso más en el siguiente año.
"Depende muchísimo del dólar. Dime lo débil que estará el dólar y te diré en que nivel se moverá el oro", concluye Day.
Por su parte, Derek Dobrowolski, de Express Futures, apuesta por que la suma de la debilidad del dólar, el encarecimiento del petróleo y la crisis inmobiliaria en EEUU dejan margen para nuevas subidas del oro, y apunta que si el metal amarillo consigue traspasar la cota de los 1.000 dólares por onza podría alcanzar precios muy superiores, alrededor de los 1.200 dólares.
En el mercado de divisas, el euro proseguía hoy su escalada frente al dólar y esta mañana establecía un nuevo récord de 1,5624 dólares, mientras que el petróleo Texas alcanzaba un máximo de 110,7 dólares y el barril de Brent alcanzaba los 106,8 dólares.
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Gold Futures Rise to Record $992 on Dollar Slide; Silver Jumps
by Pham-Duy Nguyen, Bloomberg (03-03-08)
Gold rose to a record $992 an ounce as the dollar fell to the lowest ever against the euro and crude oil neared $104 a barrel, stoking concern that inflation will accelerate...
"$1,000 is by no means the peak of this market cycle,'' said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day's Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland.
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Gold Futures Rise on Demand for Inflation Hedge; Silver Gains
by Pham-Duy Nguyen, Bloomberg (02-08-08)
Gold futures rose on speculation that climbing commodity prices and lower U.S. interest rates will boost demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation...
Gold futures reached a record $942.20 on Jan. 30. In January 1980, gold reached $873 an ounce, a record that stood for almost 28 years. The federal funds rate and consumer costs at the time were about 14 percent.
"Adjusted for inflation, gold is relatively inexpensive," said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day's Asset Management in Annapolis.
"Fundamentally, gold is not expensive relative to the dollars that have been created over the past 27 years,'' said Day. ``In 1980 dollars, it is only half its nominal price today. A disappointment on interest rates is what would cause gold to fall.''
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Goldcorp Net Rises 35% on Gold Rally, Glamis Purchase
by Choy Leng Yeong, Bloomberg (05-11-07)
Goldcorp, Inc., the world’s third-largest gold producer, said first-quarter profit rose 35 percent as prices rallied and the company boosted output with the acquisition of Glamis Gold Ltd….
“Goldcorp’s earnings in the big, big picture are really driven by their acquisitions and divestitures,” said Adrian Day, president of Annapolis, Maryland-based Global Strategic Management Inc., which manages $135 million including Goldcorp shares. “That will probably continue to be the case. When Penasquito comes on line, there will be a huge increase in earnings, “ Day said.
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Investment Opportunities
by Joe Bradley, Investor's Hotline (04-07)
Global Money Manager, Adrian Day, sees one of his longest standing and biggest cap favorites at buying levels. HSBC Holdings, the now London based global bank, is the world’s largest by assets and the third largest by market value. Because of mortgages, its share prices have taken a dip. If you don’t own it, Adrian suggests taking advantage of this temporary weakness to buy some as a core holding. ____________________________________________ Adrian Day goes Prospecting
by Adrian Day, The Bull & Bear Financial Report (03-07) Adrian Day, editor of The Global Analyst, www.adriandayglobalanalyst.com, looks to South Africia for his favorite global exploration play.
"Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI) is easily my favorite South African stock, and it's not difficult to see why: it has the best mines with the lowest cost and longest life; solid management; a strong balance sheet (with an ongoing emphasis on cost control); and a vision for international growth. ____________________________________________ Fund Manager Adrian Day Comments on Gold Prices for Next Week
by Choy Leng Yeong, Bloomberg (02-08-07) Adrian Day, president of Annapolis, Maryland based Adrian Day’s Asset Management, which has $113 million in assets, comments on the outlook of gold for next week.
Gold has risen 3.9 percent this year after advancing 23 percent in 2006. Gold futures for April delivery rose $5.50, or 0.8 percent, to $662.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have risen in the past four consecutive weeks.
"Gold has momentum, no question, but possibly is ahead of itself in the immediate term. The gold stocks, however, are good buys relative to bullion.”
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Gold Drops from Six-Month High on Speculation Rally Is Overdone
by Pham-Duy Nguyen, Bloomberg (02-02-07)
Still, gold may rebound as energy costs gain, the dollar weakens and turmoil in the Middle East disrupts financial markets, analysts said.
“Now is the time to accumulate, particularly on any weakness,” said Adrian Day, president of Annapolis, Maryland based Adrian Day’s Asset Management, which has $113 million in assets.
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Time To Buy Resource Names
by Adrian Day, Barron's (9-18-06)
Commodities have been in free-fall the last couple of weeks, after declining from their April-May peaks The stocks, which had broadly held up fairly well during the more steady declines, collapsed last week.
Having been cautious on adding to [commodities] for months, we now see many good buys. There are many factors that provoked the selloff...the U.S. economic backdrop turned negative, with money not growing...
The geopolitical situation eased, with the cease-fire in Lebanon followed by Iran's president offering to suspend nuclear enrichment...[but] the fundamentals have not changed. Yet it will take at least three years overcoming technical and financial challenges before any of that new oil hits market, and who honestly thinks peace has suddenly broken out in the Mideast?
...So we continue...favoring energy, uranium and gold, which would be less sensitive to an economic slowdown than the base metals. After such dramatic declines, however, we should not be surprised at some follow-through on the downside, nor that it may be tough slogging for a while to get back past recent peaks.
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Most Respected Companies
by Vito J. Racanelli, Barron's (9-11-06)
In an era of corporate scandals and ethically challenged executives, some companies have worked hard to win investors' respect. Our annual survey looks at who's got it, who's lost it and what it means for their shares...
Compare BP with ExxonMobil, and you get a better understanding of our respect score. If you're in the business of extracting stuff from the ground, these are going to be problems, says Adrian Day, of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, MD. "Exxon is a company that will stand up and make a case for what it is doing. I can respect that company... and not one that seems embarrassed by its product," he says, referring to BP. Day doesn't own shares of either company...
...As Adrian Day rightly notes, a company could be well respected, but not necessarily a good investment. That depends chiefly on price. Respect, he says, means "I'm more willing to pay up for a stock and hold on to it longer....If I don't respect a company, I'll insist on getting it at a much cheaper price."
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Gold May Rally on Concern Fed Will Struggle to Curb Inflation
by Pham-Duy Nguyen, Bloomberg (07-02-06)
Gold may rise for a third straight week on speculation the Federal Reserve may halt interest-rate increases too soon to curb inflation.
"A pause in U.S. rate hikes at the same time as Japan, Europe, and China are talking about raising rates is very negative for the dollar and correspondingly bullish for gold," said Adrian Day, who manages $105 million at Annapolis, Maryland-based Adrian Day's Asset Management.
Barrick Profit Triples on Gold Rally, Rising Output
by Choy Leng Yeong, Bloomberg (05-03-06)
"They certainly have a good growth profile," said Adrian Day, who manages $105 million at Annapolis, Maryland-based Adrian Day's Asset Management. "They've got some really good development projects in the pipeline that needed a high gold price. With gold at $650, their pipeline is attractive," said Day, who is considering to buy Barrick shares.
Gold May Top $600 as Investors Switch From Bonds, Survey Says
by Pham-Duy Nguyen, Bloomberg (04-02-06)
"No one wants to be short in this environment," said Adrian Day of Annapolis, Maryland-based Adrian Day's Asset Management, a $95 million investment company that owns gold shares such as Virginia Gold Mines Inc. and Newmont Mining Corp. "People are looking for opportunities to buy, not to sell."
Phelps Dodge 4th-Qtr Profit Drops on Output Shortfall
by Claudia Carpenter, Bloomberg (01-10-06)
Phelps Dodge Corp., the world's second-biggest copper producer, said fourth-quarter profit plunged as output in Chile missed forecasts and the company made wrong-way bets on metals prices...
"You don't invest in a commodity product company because you think the price is going down," said Adrian Day, who helps manage $97 million at Adrian Day Asset Management and doesn't own any Phelps Dodge shares. "I've never known a shareholder who was upset when the price went down and the company didn't hedge."
What happened to the excitement of exploration?
by Dorothy Kosich, Mineweb (05-26-05)
One might feel a bit more comfortable with the less flamboyant, but definitely credible Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management, who told retail investors that he is "very, very bearish on the dollar."
Day fortified Weiss's argument concerning the spike in interest rates, noting that there was still hope for the strength of the U.S. dollar as long as the Fed is raising interest rates.
However, those playing U.S. stocks be forewarned. While a rally has occurred in the stock market, Day believes it will be only short-term. "I do not see much potential for earnings to surprise us in the near term," Day predicted.
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